Tiger is without question the best player in the world, so we all assume he should be the top pick. But in the FGA, we don't draft strictly according to World Ranking. If that were the case, Joe Durant would be a third round pick this year. Anyone taking Joe Durant in the third round?
We all have different things we look at when considering a draft pick. Typically, I believe we all generally consider the same factors: (i) number of tournaments played; (ii) cuts made; (iii) wins; (iv) top-10s; (v) top-25s; and (vi) major performance. There is no question that when Tiger plays, there is no one we would rather have on our team. Simply put, he wins more than anyone else. But is an FGA team better served by the top player who plays more often? Last year will be a good measuring stick for the upcoming season because the top players will likely play about the same number of tournaments. Tiger is again going to be playing a reduced schedule because of his impending fatherhood (last year it was his dad's death). Let's breakdown all of the contenders for the top spot based on the aforementioned factors:
(in order:
# played, # cuts made, wins, top-10s, top-25s, Masters, US, British, PGA)
T. Woods: 7, 6, 4, 6, 6, 3rd, MC, 1st, 1st
A. Scott: 10, 10, 0, 7, 9, 27th, 21st, 8th, 3rd
J. Furyk: 12, 11, 1, 7, 10, 22nd, 2nd, 4th, 29th
V. Singh: 12, 10, 1, 4, 5, 8th, 6th, MC, MC
Mickelson: 11, 10, 1, 3, 7, 1st, 2nd, 22nd, 16th
E. Els: 10, 10, 0, 3, 5, 27th, 26th, 3rd, 16th
R. Goosen: 10, 9, 0, 2, 4, 3rd, MC, 14th, 34th
G. Ogilvy: 11, 10, 1, 3, 7, 16th, 1st, 16th, 9th
All made more cuts than Tiger and all but Els and Goosen had more top-25s than Tiger last year. I would also argue based on all of this information that Scott and Furyk, and possibly even Ogilvy and Mickelson were more valuable to their teams than Tiger last year.
Also, let's look at the past results for the FGA teams that have drafted Tiger: 6th in 2003, 2nd in 2004, 5th in 2005, and 7th in 2006. That's only once in four years that a Tiger-led team finished in the top half of the FGA at the end of the season. Now, the first round draft picks that have led FGA teams to overall victory: Toms*, Mickelson, Furyk, and Els.
*The asterisk is because 4th round pick Kenny Perry was mostly responsible.
I admit that if given the top pick in this year's draft and the chance to draft Tiger, he still might be my pick. I will, however, say that it probably shouldn't be.
A. Scott: 10, 10, 0, 7, 9, 27th, 21st, 8th, 3rd
J. Furyk: 12, 11, 1, 7, 10, 22nd, 2nd, 4th, 29th
V. Singh: 12, 10, 1, 4, 5, 8th, 6th, MC, MC
Mickelson: 11, 10, 1, 3, 7, 1st, 2nd, 22nd, 16th
E. Els: 10, 10, 0, 3, 5, 27th, 26th, 3rd, 16th
R. Goosen: 10, 9, 0, 2, 4, 3rd, MC, 14th, 34th
G. Ogilvy: 11, 10, 1, 3, 7, 16th, 1st, 16th, 9th
All made more cuts than Tiger and all but Els and Goosen had more top-25s than Tiger last year. I would also argue based on all of this information that Scott and Furyk, and possibly even Ogilvy and Mickelson were more valuable to their teams than Tiger last year.
Also, let's look at the past results for the FGA teams that have drafted Tiger: 6th in 2003, 2nd in 2004, 5th in 2005, and 7th in 2006. That's only once in four years that a Tiger-led team finished in the top half of the FGA at the end of the season. Now, the first round draft picks that have led FGA teams to overall victory: Toms*, Mickelson, Furyk, and Els.
*The asterisk is because 4th round pick Kenny Perry was mostly responsible.
I admit that if given the top pick in this year's draft and the chance to draft Tiger, he still might be my pick. I will, however, say that it probably shouldn't be.
4 comments:
Moneyball at its finest. The question is predicting who will have the most solid year if not him. Tiger is valuable not just because he's good, but because he's not risky. He WILL be great every year. Whereas Els might be good, or he might hurt his knee. Furyk could be last year's Furyk or something else. Scott might have an awesome this year, or might be worse. You don't know with anyone but Tiger that they absolutely will be good, that's why you pay a premium for him. He's as close to a sure bet as you'll get. Everyone else is a little bit of a gamble. Granted, the top 5 guys less so.
That's a good point, anonymous. There are question marks for all of the top guys. Can Mickelson and Els regain their form? Can Scott and Furyk take the next step? Is Vijay past his prime? Tiger's only question each year seems to be, how much will he play?
if there's one thing we can agree on it's that Vijay is a sorry excuse for a human being. I'll be happy to see Tiger slide down to me at #3.
Toby
Toby, I'm counting on you taking Vijay at #3 so I don't have to take him at #4. Maybe Joe will trade up for him since he loves that SOB so much. It would be asking way too much for me to have to root for Vijay on Sundays...
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